Street Calls of the Week: Sep 28 to Oct 2, 2026 — Key Upgrades and Downgrades
Wall Street analysts sent a mixed message during the week of September 28 to October 2, 2026, but the dominant theme was valuation discipline.
Several analysts became more cautious after strong share-price rallies, while others turned more positive on companies where growth expectations had improved or valuations appeared more attractive. The week's notable calls covered financials, healthcare, technology, industrials and software.
Among the most closely watched moves were Stifel's upgrade of STAAR Surgical, Wells Fargo's downgrade of FS KKR Capital, Deutsche Bank's cut on Commerzbank, Citizens' downgrade of Foghorn Therapeutics and UBS's downgrade of Gurit.
The individual calls do not necessarily predict future stock performance. Analyst ratings are opinions based on particular assumptions about earnings, valuation and business prospects, and those assumptions can change quickly.
Monday: Wells Fargo Cuts FS KKR Capital to Underweight
Wells Fargo downgraded FS KKR Capital (NYSE: FSK) to Underweight from Equal Weight and set a $10 price target.
The stock was trading around $11.16 when the call was reported. Wells Fargo highlighted credit concerns, including $897 million of non-accrual exposure at cost and $430 million at fair value. Non-accrual investments are loans or other investments where the borrower is no longer making the expected interest payments, making them an important indicator of credit stress for a business development company.
The bank also pointed to pressure from lower origination spreads and the company's efforts to reduce risk. FSK's shares had already declined during 2026, despite offering a high dividend yield.
For investors, the key issue is that a high dividend yield does not necessarily mean a stock is cheap. If credit losses increase or investment income weakens, the market can begin questioning whether the dividend is sustainable.
Tuesday: STAAR Surgical Gets a Bullish Upgrade
One of the week's strongest positive analyst reactions came from STAAR Surgical (NASDAQ: STAA).
Stifel upgraded the company to Buy from Hold and increased its price target to $31 from $28. Shares gained about 7% during Tuesday's session following the upgrade.
The analyst's thesis centred on stronger international sales momentum and improving product mix, particularly the adoption of higher-priced EVO+ lenses in China. Stifel also projected an 11% revenue compound annual growth rate through 2028, compared with an estimated 8% consensus growth rate.
This was an example of an analyst becoming more optimistic because the potential earnings trajectory appeared stronger than what the market was pricing in.
For investors, the important factor is whether the expected sales acceleration actually appears in future results. A higher price target by itself does not create value; operating performance ultimately has to support the thesis.
Monday.com Also Faced a Downgrade
Another important Tuesday call came from JPMorgan, which downgraded monday.com (NASDAQ: MNDY) to Neutral from Overweight and set a December 2027 price target of $87, compared with its previous $90 target.
The bank pointed to difficulty attracting new customers and weaker new annual recurring revenue. Net dollar retention also slipped to 109% in the second quarter from 110% in the first quarter.
JPMorgan also noted that AI products accounted for 17% of new annual recurring revenue in the second quarter but represented less than 1% of total recurring revenue. That distinction is important: strong growth in a new product category does not necessarily have a material impact on the overall business until it becomes large enough.
Wednesday: Commerzbank Loses a Buy Rating
Deutsche Bank downgraded Commerzbank (XETRA: CBK) to Hold from Buy while maintaining its €42 price target.
The shares fell more than 2% following the call. The stock had previously closed at €42.38, meaning the unchanged target implied little immediate upside.
Analyst Benjamin Goy argued that several factors supporting Commerzbank's rally—including stronger net interest income and shareholder returns through buybacks—were already reflected in the valuation.
The bank also faces strategic uncertainty surrounding the potential involvement of UniCredit. That situation adds another variable for investors assessing the German lender.
The Commerzbank example shows why a company can receive a downgrade even when its underlying business remains healthy. Analysts can become less positive simply because the stock price has risen enough to reduce the expected return.
Mobileye Downgraded as Advanced-Technology Expectations Slip
Barclays also downgraded Mobileye (NASDAQ: MBLY) on September 30, moving the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight and cutting its price target to $9 from $14.
The analyst argued that Mobileye had not secured enough advanced contracts to validate the longer-term growth and average selling price thesis.
The company has won business with customers including Stellantis and Mahindra, while it has also exceeded expectations and raised its 2026 outlook in recent quarters. However, Barclays remains concerned about competition from Chinese technology companies, questions surrounding Volkswagen and uncertainty associated with Mobileye's leadership transition.
For investors, this highlights the difference between strong near-term results and proof of a longer-term growth strategy.
Thursday: Foghorn Therapeutics Takes the Biggest Hit
The week's sharpest reported reaction came from Foghorn Therapeutics (NASDAQ: FHTX).
Citizens downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Market Outperform after Foghorn and Eli Lilly discontinued development of FHD-909, a SMARCA2-selective inhibitor. The decision followed disappointing efficacy signals in a solid-tumour dose-escalation study.
Shares fell to $2.88 from a previous close of $3.52, an approximately 18.2% decline.
This was very different from the valuation-driven downgrades seen elsewhere during the week. In Foghorn's case, the rating change followed a fundamental development that altered the company's pipeline and reduced the number of near-term catalysts.
For biotechnology investors, this is a reminder that clinical-stage companies can carry unusually high event risk. A single trial result or programme discontinuation can materially change the investment thesis.
Friday: Gurit Falls After UBS Downgrade
UBS downgraded Swiss composite-materials company Gurit Holding (SIX: GURN) to Neutral from Buy on October 2.
Interestingly, UBS raised its price target to CHF57 from CHF49, yet still downgraded the stock because its valuation had become less attractive after a major rally. Shares fell about 11.5% to CHF50.80.
UBS noted that Gurit's shares had quadrupled since January 2026. The bank also raised concerns about potential growth moderation in the company's wind-materials business, which accounts for roughly 55% of sales.
This is perhaps the clearest example of the week's central theme: a higher price target does not always mean an analyst is bullish on the stock's current risk-reward profile.
What the Week's Analyst Calls Tell Investors
Taken together, the calls from September 28 to October 2 point to three broad themes.
First, valuation matters after strong rallies. Commerzbank and Gurit were downgraded despite relatively constructive underlying business arguments because analysts believed much of the expected improvement was already reflected in their share prices.
Second, growth expectations remain critical. STAAR Surgical received an upgrade because Stifel saw the potential for stronger-than-consensus revenue growth, while Mobileye faced pressure because expected progress in advanced programmes had not materialised quickly enough.
Third, fundamental events can overwhelm valuation arguments. Foghorn's sharp decline demonstrated how quickly a biotechnology stock can react when a key development programme is discontinued.
Investors should also remember that a broker rating is not the same as a guarantee. Analysts work with forecasts and assumptions that can prove wrong, while share prices can move for reasons unrelated to a particular research note.
Key Takeaway From the Week
The most important message from the Street calls of the week from September 28 to October 2, 2026 was not simply that analysts became more bullish or bearish. It was that Wall Street was becoming increasingly selective.
STAAR Surgical stood out among the positive calls, while FS KKR Capital, Commerzbank, Mobileye, Foghorn Therapeutics and Gurit faced varying degrees of caution. Across several of these cases, analysts were questioning either valuation, growth visibility or the durability of the investment thesis.
For investors, the better approach is to treat analyst ratings as research inputs rather than automatic trading signals. The next step is to compare the analyst's assumptions with actual revenue growth, earnings, cash flow, valuation and upcoming business catalysts.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.