JPMorgan Upgrades Glencore, Kumba and Anglo American Ahead of Q3 Results
JPMorgan has turned more positive on selected European, Middle Eastern and African (EMEA) metals and mining stocks ahead of third-quarter earnings, upgrading Glencore, Kumba Iron Ore and Anglo American while identifying Glencore, Antofagasta and gold miners as preferred opportunities for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027.
The investment bank’s outlook rests on a combination of potential earnings growth, tight supplies of key industrial metals and longer-term demand for copper. However, the recommendation is selective rather than a blanket endorsement of the mining sector: JPMorgan remains cautious on major iron ore producers Rio Tinto and BHP, reflecting concerns about iron ore prices and the limited near-term catalysts it sees for those companies.
For investors, the report highlights an important distinction: mining stocks do not all respond to commodity prices in the same way. A company’s production pipeline, operating costs, commodity mix, balance sheet and project execution can be just as important as the headline price of copper, gold or iron ore.
JPMorgan’s Key Mining Stock Upgrades
JPMorgan’s latest ratings changes focus on companies where analysts see a more attractive balance between valuation, earnings potential and future growth.
Company | Rating change or stance | Key point |
|---|---|---|
Glencore | Upgraded to Overweight from Neutral | Copper growth and diversified earnings |
Kumba Iron Ore | Upgraded to Overweight | Cash position and valuation after a substantial share-price decline |
Anglo American | Upgraded to Neutral from Underweight | Revised valuation while awaiting progress on the Anglo-Teck transaction |
Antofagasta | Overweight; preferred copper exposure | Expected production growth and improving capital returns |
Fresnillo | Overweight; preferred gold-mining pick | Exposure to gold prices |
AngloGold Ashanti | Overweight; preferred gold-mining pick | Anticipated medium-term production growth |
Rio Tinto | Neutral | Limited near-term catalysts, in JPMorgan’s view |
BHP | Neutral | Iron ore weakness and uncertainty over Chinese stimulus |
Ratings and views reflect JPMorgan’s reported research, not a guarantee of future share-price performance.
Why JPMorgan Is Bullish on Copper
Copper is central to JPMorgan’s positive outlook. The bank raised its long-term copper price forecast to approximately $13,200 per tonne from $12,125, and expects prices to remain supported above $13,000 per tonne during 2026 and 2027. The forecast reflects its assessment of more than 40 global copper projects and the potential impact of US import tariffs.
Three factors support the investment case.
Electrification and power infrastructure: Copper is widely used in electricity networks, transformers, electric vehicles and renewable-energy systems. Expanding power demand and grid investment can support consumption over time.
Structural supply constraints: New mines can take years to develop and require substantial capital. If demand grows faster than production, the market can tighten and support prices. However, project delays, permitting challenges and declining ore grades can also increase costs.
Industrial demand: Manufacturing activity and infrastructure investment influence demand for copper and other base metals. JPMorgan identified stronger global growth and improving manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) among the potential earnings drivers for the sector. A PMI is a survey-based indicator of business activity; readings above 50 generally indicate expansion.
The risks are equally important. A slowdown in China, weaker global manufacturing or a reduction in infrastructure spending could undermine copper demand. Higher prices can also encourage recycling, substitution and new mine investment, eventually easing supply constraints.
Glencore Emerges as a Key Pick
Glencore is one of JPMorgan’s strongest preferences because of its copper growth prospects and diversified earnings.
The bank upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target to 730 pence from 510 pence. It expects Glencore’s copper production to increase by more than 30%, reaching approximately 1.1 million tonnes by 2031 from 2026 levels. JPMorgan also highlighted the company’s marketing and coal businesses as sources of earnings diversification.
A diversified business can help cushion weakness in one commodity, although it does not eliminate exposure to commodity cycles. Glencore’s trading activities can benefit from market volatility, but mining operations remain sensitive to production costs, operational disruptions and commodity prices.
Another near-term development is the company’s secondary listing on the Australian Securities Exchange on October 14. JPMorgan sees the listing as a potential catalyst for broader investor demand. A new listing can improve access for investors who face restrictions on overseas-listed shares, but additional demand and a lasting valuation benefit are not guaranteed.
Antofagasta and Gold Miners: Other Preferred Stocks
JPMorgan continues to favour Antofagasta for exposure to copper. The bank expects its return on capital employed—a measure of how efficiently a company generates operating returns from the capital invested in its business—to rise above 35% from 2028. It also sees potential for free-cash-flow yield of 6% to 8% as copper production expands by more than 30%. These are analyst projections, not confirmed future outcomes.
The bank also named Fresnillo and AngloGold Ashanti as preferred gold-mining stocks. It expects AngloGold Ashanti to deliver medium-term production growth of 10% to 15%, while its commodities team forecasts gold reaching $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2027.
Gold miners offer a different investment proposition from copper producers. Their earnings can benefit from higher gold prices, but profitability also depends on mining costs, ore quality, production volumes, currency movements and political conditions in the countries where they operate.
Gold prices themselves can move sharply as interest-rate expectations, the US dollar, geopolitical risks and investor demand change. A bullish price forecast should therefore be treated as one possible scenario rather than a dependable outcome.
Why JPMorgan Remains Cautious on Rio Tinto and BHP
JPMorgan maintained Neutral ratings on Rio Tinto and BHP, pointing to weaker iron ore prices and a lack of immediate positive catalysts. The report noted that iron ore had fallen to approximately $90 per tonne, a year-to-date low, while the bank saw limited momentum from Chinese stimulus measures.
This is significant because China is a major consumer of iron ore, largely through its steel industry. Weak property construction, subdued infrastructure demand or lower steel production can reduce demand for the raw material.
Even large, diversified mining companies can face earnings pressure when a key commodity weakens. Investors should monitor Chinese construction activity, steel output, infrastructure spending and the spread between commodity prices and miners’ production costs.
JPMorgan’s stance does not mean Rio Tinto or BHP cannot perform well. It indicates that, in the bank’s assessment, their near-term catalysts were less compelling than the opportunities it identified elsewhere in the sector.
What Investors Should Watch Before Q3 Results
Third-quarter updates will help investors assess whether the expected earnings drivers are translating into operating performance.
Key indicators include:
Production volumes: Whether copper and gold miners deliver planned output and maintain production guidance.
Commodity prices: Whether copper remains resilient and iron ore stabilises.
Unit costs: Whether labour, energy, equipment and other expenses erode higher selling prices.
Cash flow and debt: Whether companies can fund expansion projects while maintaining financial flexibility.
Capital spending: Whether new mines and expansions remain on schedule and within budget.
Management guidance: Whether companies confirm or revise production and investment plans.
Investors should also distinguish between an analyst upgrade and a company’s own results. An upgrade reflects a broker’s assessment of future returns; it does not confirm that earnings will meet expectations or that the stock price will reach its target.
Conclusion
JPMorgan’s latest research favours selective opportunities in EMEA mining stocks, with Glencore, Antofagasta and gold miners standing out, while Kumba Iron Ore and Anglo American received rating upgrades. The central thesis is that copper supply constraints, production growth and selected gold exposures could create opportunities into late 2026 and 2027.
The outlook remains exposed to China’s demand, commodity-price volatility, operating costs and project execution. Investors should compare company fundamentals, valuations and upcoming quarterly results rather than treating the bank’s preferred stocks as guaranteed winners.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.