Better Collective Shares Plunge 24% After Brazil Betting Ban
Shares of Better Collective plunged as much as 24% on September 28, falling to levels not seen since the early months of 2020, after Brazil introduced a nationwide prohibition on fixed-odds betting and online gaming.
The Danish sports-media and betting-affiliate company responded by cutting its 2026 financial guidance, suspending its 2027–2028 targets and immediately stopping its share buyback programme. The sharp market reaction reflects concerns that Brazil, one of Better Collective’s most important international markets, could become a significant drag on revenue and earnings if the restrictions remain in place.
The regulatory decision is particularly significant because Better Collective had been expecting Brazil to return to growth in 2026 after the country introduced a regulated betting framework in January 2025.
Why Better Collective Shares Are Falling
Brazil’s government introduced a Provisional Measure on September 25 that prohibits the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting, covering both sports betting and online gaming.
The measure took effect immediately and provides for licensed betting and online gaming platforms to shut down after a 10-day transition period. However, the measure is not yet permanent. It must go through Brazil’s Congress, which can approve it, amend it, reject it or allow it to lapse. Its initial validity period runs until November 23, 2026, with the possibility of one further 60-day extension if the legislative process has not been completed.
That uncertainty is central to the sell-off.
Investors are not simply pricing in a temporary disruption. They are reassessing the value of a major revenue market at a time when the company had been positioning Brazil as an important source of renewed growth.
Brazil Was a Major Revenue Contributor
The scale of the potential impact becomes clearer from Better Collective's own disclosure.
Before the latest regulatory announcement, the company expected its Brazilian business to generate approximately €45 million of revenue in 2026. That represented around 12% of current analyst consensus for the group's full-year revenue, with about €15 million expected in the remainder of 2026.
Better Collective also said its Brazilian operations had an annual cost base of approximately €10 million, in addition to substantial investments already made to establish and adapt its operations to Brazil's regulated market.
The company's 2025 annual report also shows the strategic importance of Brazil. Brazil accounted for 15% of Better Collective's 2025 revenue, or €49 million, compared with 20% in 2024. The United States accounted for 24% and the UK for 23%.
That makes the Brazilian regulatory shock much larger than a country-specific headline. It directly affects one of the group's biggest geographic revenue pools.
Better Collective Cuts 2026 Guidance
The company has now revised its 2026 expectations on the assumption that there will be no further betting and casino revenue from Brazil following implementation of the new restrictions.
Its updated guidance is:
Organic revenue growth: 3%–8%, versus 7%–12% previously
EBITDA before special items growth: -7% to +3%, versus 8%–18% previously
Net debt/EBITDA: below 3x, unchanged
EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, is commonly used to assess operating profitability before financing, tax and certain accounting effects.
The change in the EBITDA outlook is particularly notable. Previously, Better Collective expected double-digit growth at the upper end of its range; the new range allows for a decline in EBITDA before special items.
The company has also suspended its 2027 and 2028 financial guidance, saying the uncertainty around the duration and ultimate outcome of the Brazilian regulatory process makes longer-term forecasting unreliable.
Share Buybacks Also Suspended
Better Collective has simultaneously halted its share buyback programme.
The company began a programme in March 2026 allowing purchases of up to €40 million worth of shares. Regulatory disclosures show that it was still buying shares during September, with purchases on Nasdaq Stockholm and related transactions on Nasdaq Copenhagen recorded as recently as September 22.
The decision to suspend the programme is a precautionary move designed to preserve financial flexibility while the Brazilian situation remains unclear.
For investors, this removes another potential source of demand for the shares in the short term.
It also shows that management is prioritising balance-sheet flexibility over returning additional capital to shareholders while the regulatory outlook is uncertain.
The Timing Is Particularly Difficult
The Brazilian announcement comes after Better Collective had delivered a strong second quarter.
For Q2 2026, revenue increased 9% year over year to €89.1 million, while EBITDA before special items rose 20% to €27 million. Profit after tax increased to €8.2 million, and new depositing customers rose 24% to 373,000.
The FIFA World Cup was an important growth driver, while North America, prediction markets and sports-media brands also supported the business.
In other words, the Brazil shock arrives against a backdrop in which the wider business was showing operating momentum.
That distinction matters when assessing the sell-off. The new regulatory risk does not necessarily mean every part of Better Collective's business has deteriorated. Rather, investors are reassessing how much of the group's future earnings can be generated outside Brazil and how quickly other markets can offset the lost contribution.
Why Brazil Had Been Important to the Growth Story
Better Collective had already invested heavily to establish itself in Brazil after the country's regulated betting framework came into force on January 1, 2025.
The company had built a local team of more than 100 employees to meet onshoring requirements and had expected the market to return to growth after the initial regulatory transition. Its 2025 annual report said player retention and wagering had been stronger than anticipated, supporting its expectation that Brazil would become a major long-term contributor again.
The company's business model also makes the regulatory change especially important.
A significant majority of Better Collective's Brazilian revenue comes from revenue-share agreements with licensed operators. Under this model, Better Collective receives revenue linked to the economic activity of customers it refers to betting operators.
If licensed operators cannot legally operate or generate betting activity, the revenue available to affiliates can fall sharply.
The final impact, however, will depend on how the regulatory process develops and how Better Collective's partners respond.
What Could Happen Next?
The biggest near-term variable is Brazil's political and legislative process.
The provisional measure does not automatically guarantee a permanent nationwide ban. Congress could change the measure, reject it or allow it to expire. The regulatory framework could therefore evolve considerably before the initial validity period ends.
For Better Collective investors, several developments deserve attention:
Brazilian legislation: Any changes made by Congress could materially alter the company's revenue outlook.
Operator response: The company says the ultimate financial impact depends partly on how its licensed partners react to the restrictions.
Cost reductions: If the restrictions persist, Better Collective has indicated that it will assess measures across its Brazilian operations and indirect functions to reduce its cost base.
North American growth: The performance of the U.S. and Canadian businesses will become increasingly important if Brazil remains impaired.
Prediction markets: Better Collective has been expanding in prediction markets, which contributed to its recent growth. The ability of these newer businesses to offset pressure elsewhere will be closely watched.
Balance-sheet flexibility: The suspension of buybacks signals that management wants to retain financial flexibility while visibility is limited.
The Bigger Investor Question
The immediate market reaction is about Brazil, but the longer-term investment question is broader: how diversified is Better Collective's earnings base?
The company has deliberately expanded beyond traditional sports-betting affiliate revenue. Its portfolio includes sports-media brands, esports communities, paid media and newer products such as its AI-powered betting solution Playbook.
Recent results show that these businesses can generate growth. But Brazil's contribution demonstrates that regulatory changes in a major market can still have a material effect on group-level expectations.
For investors, the coming quarters will therefore provide a clearer test of whether growth outside Brazil can compensate for a prolonged disruption in the country.
Bottom Line
Better Collective shares plunged about 24% after Brazil introduced a provisional nationwide prohibition covering fixed-odds betting and online gaming. The company responded by cutting its 2026 growth forecasts, suspending 2027–2028 guidance and halting its €40 million share buyback programme.
Brazil generated approximately €49 million, or 15% of group revenue, in 2025, making the regulatory shock financially significant. Yet the company's recent growth in North America, prediction markets and sports media means the full impact will depend on how quickly other parts of the business can compensate if Brazilian restrictions persist.
The key catalyst now is Brazil's legislative process and whether the country's betting market ultimately remains prohibited, returns to its previous regulated framework or moves toward a modified structure.
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This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.