Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan Narrowly Ahead in Race to Become Next UN Chief

Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan has emerged as the narrow frontrunner in the race to become the next United Nations Secretary-General, according to sources familiar with the latest informal Security Council straw poll.

The former Costa Rican vice president received 10 “encourage” votes, three “discourage” votes and two “no opinion” votes in the fourth round of the 15-member UN Security Council’s informal polling process, according to Reuters. Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Argentina’s Rafael Mariano Grossi remain among the other prominent contenders.

The result does not mean Grynspan has been selected. The UN Secretary-General is appointed by the General Assembly following a recommendation from the Security Council, and the five permanent members of the Council—the United States, China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom—can veto the recommendation.

With current Secretary-General António Guterres due to leave office at the end of 2026, the selection process is entering a critical stage.

Grynspan Holds a Narrow Lead in the Latest Straw Poll

The latest poll is notable because Grynspan has remained near the front of the field through multiple rounds despite changes in the standings.

In the first informal Security Council straw poll, she received 10 “encourage” votes, one “discourage” vote and four “no opinion” votes. Guyana’s Rodrigues-Birkett was close behind with nine “encourage” votes.

The second round produced a different picture, with Rodrigues-Birkett receiving eight “encourage” votes compared with seven for Grynspan.

Grynspan regained the lead in the third round held on September 18, according to Reuters reporting, before remaining ahead in the fourth poll on September 29.

The changing results underline an important point: the straw polls indicate the level of support or opposition among Security Council members at particular moments, but they are not a formal election.

Who Is Rebeca Grynspan?

Grynspan is an economist and diplomat who served as vice president of Costa Rica and has held senior positions in international organizations.

Costa Rica formally nominated her for Secretary-General on March 3, 2026. The United Nations' official selection page lists her nomination and provides her curriculum vitae, vision statement and campaign-financing disclosures.

Her international career has included work on economic development, social inclusion and multilateral cooperation. Costa Rica's nomination letter highlighted her experience in government administration and international organizations, as well as her involvement in sustainable development and international cooperation.

Grynspan also participated in the UN's interactive dialogue with Secretary-General candidates on April 22, where candidates presented their views and answered questions from member states and civil society.

If ultimately selected, Grynspan would make history as the first woman to serve as UN Secretary-General. No woman has held the organization's top post since the United Nations was established more than 80 years ago.

The Race Is Still Open

Although Grynspan currently leads the informal polling, the field remains competitive.

Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana's UN ambassador, has also performed strongly in the Security Council's informal polls. Rafael Grossi, Argentina's candidate and director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is another major contender.

The wider candidate pool has changed during the process. The UN's official records show nominations for Grynspan, Grossi, Rodrigues-Birkett, Macky Sall, María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, Olara Otunnu and Ivonne A-Baki. Michelle Bachelet and Virginia Gamba were previously nominated but later withdrew.

That leaves a broader field than the early stages of the contest, making consensus-building particularly important as the Security Council moves toward a final recommendation.

How the UN Secretary-General Is Chosen

The process is different from a conventional national election.

Member states nominate candidates, while the General Assembly and Security Council conduct the selection process. Candidates have participated in public interactive dialogues, where they discuss their vision for the organization and answer questions concerning leadership, UN reform, peace and security, development and human rights.

The Security Council ultimately has to recommend one candidate to the General Assembly.

For a candidate to secure a recommendation, support from the permanent members is particularly important because any of the five permanent members can block the process with a veto. As a result, leading a straw poll is significant but does not guarantee the final outcome.

The next rounds of diplomatic negotiations and informal polling will therefore be closely watched.

Why the Leadership Change Matters

The next Secretary-General will take office at a difficult moment for the multilateral system.

The UN is dealing with major conflicts, humanitarian emergencies, disagreements among major powers and financial pressures. The organization is also facing debates over how effectively it can respond to new challenges, including artificial intelligence, climate change, development financing and global security.

The Secretary-General has limited power to impose solutions on member states, but the office carries substantial diplomatic influence. The position involves coordinating the UN system, representing the organization internationally and using the Secretary-General's office to encourage negotiations and international cooperation.

The choice of the next leader could therefore influence how the organization approaches conflict prevention, development, humanitarian operations and institutional reform.

What Investors and Businesses Should Watch

Although the Secretary-General selection is not directly a stock-market event, it can have wider implications for businesses and investors exposed to global policy.

International organizations influence areas such as sustainable development, climate policy, humanitarian financing and global development priorities. Changes in diplomatic priorities can affect the broader policy environment in which companies operate, particularly in sectors linked to infrastructure, energy, technology and international development.

For investors, however, the UN leadership race should be viewed primarily as a geopolitical and institutional development rather than a direct trading catalyst.

The more immediate issues to monitor are the final candidate negotiations, the Security Council's subsequent straw polls and whether any candidate can secure sufficient support from the permanent members.

What Happens Next?

The current informal poll gives Grynspan a visible lead, but the process is far from finished.

The Security Council will need to build a consensus around a candidate before making its formal recommendation to the General Assembly. Diplomatic negotiations among the Council's members will therefore matter as much as the public-facing polling.

The eventual successor to Guterres is expected to begin a five-year term on January 1, 2027.

For now, Grynspan's latest result keeps Costa Rica's candidate at the center of the contest. But with other candidates still attracting support and the permanent members holding veto power, the final choice remains subject to further negotiations.

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