Tejas Fighter Jets May Lose Frontline Relevance by the 2030s: Ex-IAF Vice Chief Nagesh Kapoor Warns
India’s indigenous Tejas fighter programme has come under fresh scrutiny after retired Air Marshal Nagesh Kapoor, who served as Vice Chief of the Indian Air Force until June 2026, warned that the Tejas Mk2 may not remain operationally relevant in the 2030s if current development and induction timelines continue.
Kapoor’s comments are significant because they come from a senior former IAF fighter pilot at a time when India is trying to modernise its fighter fleet while simultaneously building a domestic aerospace industry. His concern is not simply about one aircraft. It highlights a larger problem: whether India can develop and induct advanced fighter aircraft quickly enough to keep pace with China and other major air powers.
At the same time, the warning should not be interpreted as meaning that every Tejas aircraft will suddenly become useless by 2030. The immediate issue is more complicated, particularly because the Tejas Mk1A and the future Tejas Mk2 occupy different roles and timelines.
What Did Nagesh Kapoor Say About Tejas?
In an interview reported by NDTV and The Times of India, Air Marshal Nagesh Kapoor criticised delays surrounding the Tejas programme and questioned whether it makes operational sense for India to induct a fourth-generation-plus fighter in the mid-2030s when competing countries are moving towards fifth- and potentially sixth-generation platforms.
When asked whether such an aircraft would be operationally relevant at that point, Kapoor was reported as saying: “No, operationally, definitely No.”
His criticism was particularly focused on the Tejas Mk2, which is a larger and more capable aircraft than the Mk1A. The concern is that if Mk2 enters service in significant numbers only during the 2030s, the technology gap could already have widened substantially.
That distinction is important for readers following headlines claiming that “Tejas will be useless by 2030.”
The more accurate interpretation is that Kapoor is warning about the future frontline relevance of Tejas Mk2 in the 2030s, not declaring that the entire Tejas fleet becomes worthless in 2030.
Why Is the Tejas Timeline Becoming a Concern?
The Tejas programme has faced delays for years, although it has also achieved important milestones.
The government signed a contract with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in September 2025 for 97 LCA Mk1A aircraft at a value of more than ₹62,370 crore, excluding taxes. The contract covers 68 fighters and 29 twin-seat aircraft, with deliveries scheduled to begin in 2027-28 and continue over six years.
The programme has also been affected by supply-chain and engine-related challenges. HAL signed an agreement with GE for 113 F404-GE-IN20 engines to support the 97-aircraft Mk1A programme, with engine deliveries scheduled from 2027 to 2032.
That timeline illustrates the core problem.
A modern fighter aircraft is not just an airframe. It requires engines, radar, electronic warfare systems, weapons, mission computers, software and numerous specialised components. A delay in even one critical area can affect the entire delivery schedule.
For an air force facing a shortage of fighter squadrons, such delays can become strategically important.
Tejas Mk1A and Tejas Mk2 Are Not the Same Aircraft
One of the most important points often missed in social-media discussions is the difference between the Mk1A and Mk2.
The Tejas Mk1A is a 4+ generation fighter designed to provide capabilities including AESA radar, beyond-visual-range weapons, electronic warfare and air-to-air refuelling. The government has described it as an advanced indigenous platform intended to meet IAF operational requirements.
The Tejas Mk2, meanwhile, is intended to be a larger, more capable fighter.
HAL has previously indicated that the Mk2 programme is distinct from the Mk1A. In an investor interaction, company officials said the additional 97 Mk1A aircraft would not necessarily cannibalise the Mk2 requirement because the two aircraft belong to different weight categories.
That means India can still have a meaningful role for Mk1A while simultaneously debating whether Mk2 will be sufficiently advanced by the time it enters service.
The Bigger Challenge: China Is Moving Faster
Kapoor’s warning is ultimately about the speed of technological change.
Modern air combat is increasingly shaped by stealth, sensor fusion, electronic warfare, long-range missiles, networked warfare, unmanned systems and increasingly autonomous capabilities.
A fighter that is highly capable today can face a very different competitive environment ten years later.
This is particularly relevant for India because China has already operationalised fifth-generation J-20 fighters and continues to invest heavily in next-generation military aviation. Kapoor therefore argued that India needs to think beyond simply completing existing fourth-generation-plus programmes.
The challenge becomes sharper if India's own advanced programmes continue to experience delays.
India Is Already Working on the Next Generation
India is not standing still.
The government has been advancing the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme, India's indigenous fifth-generation fighter initiative.
In May 2025, the Defence Ministry approved an industry-partnership execution model for AMCA, allowing eligible Indian companies to participate independently, through joint ventures or as consortia.
In May 2026, the government also announced the foundation of a Core Integration and Flight Testing Centre in Andhra Pradesh aimed at supporting the development of the fifth-generation AMCA and other future indigenous platforms. The government said the overall AMCA programme has an outlay of around ₹15,000 crore.
The strategic objective is clear: India eventually needs an aircraft capable of operating in an environment dominated by stealth and advanced sensor technologies.
But the timing remains crucial.
If AMCA arrives significantly later than planned, India could face another capability gap between its current aircraft and the next generation.
What Does This Mean for HAL?
For investors tracking Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., the debate has two sides.
On the positive side, the Tejas programme represents a substantial long-term order pipeline. The government awarded HAL the ₹62,370-crore contract for 97 Mk1A aircraft in 2025, while the domestic defence ecosystem is also becoming more deeply integrated into aircraft production. The latest contract specifies more than 64% indigenous content.
That creates business visibility for HAL and hundreds of Indian suppliers.
However, the strategic concern raised by Kapoor highlights another risk: execution and technology relevance.
A large order book is valuable only if aircraft can be delivered on schedule and remain technologically competitive throughout their intended service life.
For HAL and India's defence industry, therefore, the next major catalysts are likely to include Mk1A delivery progress, engine availability, production-rate improvements, Tejas Mk2 development milestones and progress on AMCA.
What Should Investors and Defence Watchers Monitor?
The Tejas controversy should not be reduced to a simple “good aircraft versus bad aircraft” debate.
The more useful questions are:
Can HAL accelerate Tejas Mk1A deliveries?
Are engine and other supply-chain bottlenecks being resolved?
How quickly can Tejas Mk2 move through prototype, testing and certification?
Can India maintain technological relevance while development takes place?
Will AMCA remain on its intended development pathway?
Can India's private and public aerospace companies build the manufacturing ecosystem required for large-scale production?
These factors matter not only for India's military preparedness but also for the country's growing defence manufacturing industry.
The Bottom Line
Air Marshal Nagesh Kapoor's warning is best understood as a warning about timing and technological relevance, rather than a verdict that Tejas is useless.
Tejas Mk1A still has an important role in strengthening the IAF's depleted fighter fleet, and the government continues to place large orders for the aircraft. But if Tejas Mk2 reaches frontline service only in the mid-2030s, India will need to ensure that its capabilities are strong enough for the battlefield of that period—not the battlefield of the previous decade.
The real strategic test for India is therefore bigger than Tejas. It is whether the country can design, test, manufacture and induct increasingly advanced fighter aircraft fast enough to keep pace with changing warfare.
For investors, HAL and the broader Indian defence sector, the key indicators to watch will be execution of Tejas orders, Mk2 development, engine localisation and the progress of AMCA.
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This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice
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